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Bringing Uncertainty into Focus: Stochastic Mine Planning – evolving approaches to manage uncertainty

Episode 124 – Fresh Thinking by Snowden Optiro
Featuring: Tarrant Elkington (General Manager, Snowden Optiro) and Matheus Faria (Director of Technical Services, KPI Mining)

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Introduction

In this episode of Fresh Thinking by Snowden Optiro, General Manager Tarrant Elkington was joined by Matheus Faria, Director of Technical Services at KPI Mining, for a discussion about one of the most transformative ideas in modern mine planning — stochastic mine planning.

Together, they explored how mining companies can make better, more confident decisions by embracing uncertainty rather than trying to eliminate it.

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What Is Stochastic Mine Planning?

The word stochastic might sound complex, but as Matheus explains, it simply means taking a probabilistic approach.

Traditional mine planning — or deterministic planning — uses a single input for every variable: grade, recovery, cost, or price. It assumes a single version of the truth.

A stochastic plan does something different. It recognises that mining is inherently uncertain and builds multiple scenarios to reflect what could actually happen in the ground and in the market. The result is a more realistic and robust understanding of risk.

“Mining is highly uncertain — we never know exactly what’s in the ground or what prices will do. Stochastic planning helps us make better decisions in that uncertain world.”
— Matheus Faria, KPI Mining

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Why Deterministic Thinking Falls Short

Despite all the advances in software and data, most mines still rely on deterministic models — and the results can be misleading.

As Tarrant points out, geologists understand that their models carry uncertainty, but once those models move downstream, that uncertainty often gets lost. Smoothing effects in estimation methods can hide local highs and lows, leading to production forecasts that don’t reflect reality.

This disconnect is a major reason why operations often struggle to meet tonnage or cash flow targets.

Stochastic planning changes the conversation. It helps quantify uncertainty and model its impact — showing planners how likely it is that production or grade targets will actually be met.

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Turning Research into Reality

The concept of stochastic mine planning isn’t new. It has been evolving for decades, led by research at McGill University’s Cosmo Stochastic Mine Planning Laboratory.

What’s new is that the technology has finally caught up. KPI Mining — born from this research — is now bringing stochastic optimisation into commercial practice.

“It’s the result of decades of research,” Matheus explains. “We now have the computational power, awareness, and curiosity to make it real.”

Their platform combines stochastic modelling with direct block scheduling, allowing planners to optimise extraction sequences, cut-off grades, and blending across multiple simulated realities. The outcome: a plan that not only maximises value but also minimises risk.

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From Data to Decisions

Stochastic mine planning doesn’t eliminate uncertainty — it makes it visible.

With this approach, companies can:

• Understand the probability of achieving targets.
• Identify areas of high geological or economic risk.
• Prioritise additional drilling where it matters most.
• Create plans that remain resilient under different market or geological conditions.

This integration of geological uncertainty into mine planning strengthens collaboration between resource geologists and engineers — two disciplines that historically work in sequence rather than partnership.

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A Shared Vision for the Industry

Snowden Optiro and KPI Mining share a commitment to helping the industry evolve beyond deterministic thinking.
As Tarrant highlights, this change mirrors a familiar pattern in mining innovation.

“We used to do mine planning in spreadsheets. Then we trusted computer-based optimisation. Now the same journey is happening with stochastic methods.”
— Tarrant Elkington, Snowden Optiro

Early adopters — from gold and copper to iron ore operations — are already seeing the benefits. As technology improves, stochastic principles will flow into medium- and short-term planning, integrating live operational data and creating a more adaptive, real-time view of the mine.

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A More Realistic Path Forward

Uncertainty is not a problem to be ignored — it’s a fact of mining life. Stochastic mine planning turns that uncertainty into insight, helping companies make more informed, resilient decisions.

At Snowden Optiro, we believe this shift represents the next major step forward for mine planning — one that’s grounded in reality, driven by data, and designed for better outcomes.

The future of mine planning isn’t about eliminating uncertainty. It’s about understanding it.

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Listen to the Full Conversation

🎧 Episode 124: Stochastic Mine Planning – Evolving approaches to manage uncertainty
Available now on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, YouTube, or wherever you listen.

Fresh Thinking podcasts are rapidly becoming the best podcasts for mining professionals.
Watch or listen to the full episode

Stay tuned for more quick read articles from our Fresh Thinking 3-Minute Read series.

If you would like to contact either Tarrant or Matheus: contact@snowdenoptiro.com

Here is a LINK to our Snowden Optiro YouTube channel.

SNOWDEN OPTIRO is a resources consulting and advisory group that provides independent advice, consulting and training to mining and exploration companies, their advisors and investors.

We help mine developers to advance their projects, mining companies to improve their operations and their professionals, and investors to de-risk their investments by the provision of quality advice, training and software in the field of Mineral Resources and Mineral/Ore Reserves.

KPI MINING SOLUTIONS offers the first truly stochastic & simultaneous optimization software for mineral value chains.

Generate optimized production schedules, increase the life-of-asset net present value (NPV) and recovered reserves with smart and innovative software.

For more details: https://kpimining.com/software-solutions/

LINK to Snowden Optiro website