Germanium Prices Surge in 2024: What’s Driving the Market?

Vince Agnello – Principal Consultant based in our Snowden Optiro Johannesburg office authored this insightful analysis – exploring the multifaceted forces, from geopolitical tensions and supply constraints to the booming demand in high-tech industries, that are driving this market upheaval. Vince provides essential context for understanding not only the current market dynamics but also the future trajectory of this metal.

A Rising Star in Critical Metals

Germanium, once a niche metal, is now making headlines. Prices have surged in 2024, driven by geopolitical tensions, supply constraints, and rising demand from high-tech industries. But what’s behind this sudden spike, and what does it mean for the future of germanium?

What is Germanium and Why Does it Matter?

Germanium is a hard, brittle metalloid with properties similar to silicon and tin. It plays a crucial role in industries such as:

• Fibre Optics – Enhancing infrared transmission for telecommunications.
• Infrared Optics – Used in night vision systems and thermal imaging.
• Semiconductors – Essential for microchips, transistors, and diodes.
• Solar Cells – Boosting efficiency in multi-junction solar panels.
• Polymerisation Catalysts – Key for polyester and lactide production.

With the explosion of artificial intelligence (AI), 5G networks, and cloud computing, the demand for germanium has never been higher.

Where is Germanium Mined and Processed?

Germanium is primarily obtained as a by-product of zinc, copper, lead and coal mining. The largest producers of germanium include:

• China – Leading global production with over 60% of supply, primarily sourced from zinc ores and coal fly ash. Major producers include Yunnan Germanium, Yunnan Chihong Zn & Ge, and Shenzhen Zhongjin Lingnan.
• Russia – A significant contributor, with JSC Germanium being a leading company in germanium processing and refining.
• United States & Canada – Key producers are Teck Resources in Canada and Nyrstar Clarksville smelter in Tennessee, US; both are extracting germanium from zinc ores.  
• Finland – Boliden Harjavalta processes base metal concentrates that contain germanium.
• Belgium – Umicore operates one of the world’s leading germanium refining facilities, providing high-purity germanium for advanced applications.
• Germany – PPM Pure Metals is a notable processor that refines germanium for semiconductor and optical applications.

New Producer Prospects

• United States & Canada – The US Department of Defence has partnered with Canada’s 5N Plus to develop germanium wafer production in Utah, aiming to reduce dependency on Chinese supply.
• Namibia – Hong Kong’s Sinomine Rare Metals has acquired the Tsumeb copper smelter, which contains over 700 tonnes of stockpiled germanium resource and may become a major supplier outside of China.
• Kazakhstan – Exploration projects are underway to assess the feasibility of germanium extraction from zinc and copper mines.
• Australia – Several mining companies are investigating germanium-rich base metal deposits, particularly in Western Australia, as part of a broader push for critical minerals.

Historic Pricing and Product Forms

Germanium is commercially available in several forms, including:

• Germanium Ingots – High-purity refined germanium, used in semiconductors and infrared optics.
• Germanium Dioxide (GeO₂) – A key precursor for fibre optic and infrared applications.
• Germanium Tetrachloride (GeCl₄) – Used in optical fibre production.
• Polycrystalline and Single Crystal Germanium – Essential for semiconductor and advanced optical uses.
• Recycled Germanium – Extracted from end-of-life electronics and reused in high-tech industries.

Over the past decade, prices ranged from $800/kg to $2,000/kg, with a sharp spike in 2023–2024, reaching over $2,000/kg due to supply constraints, rising demand and geopolitical shifts. Futures contracts are traded on the Shanghai Metal Exchange, with additional over-the-counter transactions driving price fluctuations.

Why Are Prices Soaring in 2024?

Several factors are driving the price surge:

1. Geopolitical Tensions & Supply Restrictions
   • China, the world’s largest germanium producer, implemented export restrictions in 2023 and 2024, citing national security concerns. This move disrupted global supply chains and sent prices skyrocketing.
2. Growing Demand from Tech Industries
   • The increasing use of germanium in AI, semiconductor chips, and advanced optics has outpaced supply growth.
3. Limited Natural Sources
   • Germanium is primarily a by-product, making its availability dependent on base metal and coal production.
4. Strategic Moves by Other Nations
   • The US ramped up its germanium imports and partnered with Canada’s 5N Plus to boost domestic production.
   • Hong Kong’s Sinomine Rare Metals acquired Namibia’s Tsumeb copper smelter with stockpiled resources.
   • European nations are investing in alternative refining and recycling programs to secure a stable supply.

Market Outlook: What’s Next?

• The global germanium market is valued at $330 million in 2024, with annual production around 220 tonnes.
• China consumes nearly 44% of global germanium, making its policies a key market driver.
• Substitutes like gallium arsenide and chalcogenide glass may replace germanium in some applications, but high-tech sectors still rely heavily on its unique properties.
• Analysts predict a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.5% for the germanium market through 2030.

What This Means for Industry Players

• Electronics & Semiconductor Manufacturers – Prepare for supply chain disruptions and potential price hikes.
• Mining & Refining Companies – Expect increased demand and investment in germanium-rich deposits.
• Investors & Policymakers – Keep an eye on China’s export strategies and alternative supply sources.

Join the Conversation

With supply constraints and growing demand, germanium is becoming one of the most sought-after critical metals. Will substitutes like gallium arsenide eventually replace germanium, or will it remain indispensable to high-tech industries?

What do you think? Let us know your thoughts.

If you would like to know more about this topic, please contact Vince Agnello: contact@snowdenoptiro.com